October 4, 2004
This came in from the RunningOnEmpty2 mailing list today. It's sobering:
Poster's Note:
The following is lifted from the October ASPO Newsletter: www.peakoil.net Check
out the latest newsletter number 46 - on ASPO's home
page click on, Archive of Old ASPO Newsletter.
429. Evidence for Peak Oil mounts: by John Attarian
Readily accessible
evidence is piling up that a global oil peak cannot be
far off. Analysis of the June 2004 BP Statistical Review of World Energy
and historical oil production data reveals that:
(1) All regions
except Africa have already passed through their peaks: North America
(1985), Europe and Eurasia (1987), the Middle East (2000),
Asia Pacific (2000), and South and Central America (2002).
(2) Of the 48 largest
oil-producing countries which BP lists, which account
for at least 98 percent of world oil extraction, only 17 were past
their
peaks as of 1993, but 31 were past peak as of 2002, not counting Denmark
and Angola, which may have peaked that year.
(3) Decline has
set in among many major producers. In each year 1993-1997, at least
30 major producing countries showed output increases. The
tables
have turned. Output declined in 29 major countries in 2001, in 27 in
2002,
and in 22 in 2003. Yet oil prices in this period were much higher than
in
1993-1997, and rising. So was consumption. This, surely, is a strong
sign
that economic forces alone do not govern how much oil is extracted
- and
that geological reality, i.e., resource finitude and depletion, is
starting
to take over.
(4) Depletion is
also very substantial. The total output decline amongmajor producers
was -2,584 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in 1999,
-551
kb/d in 2000, -1,461 kb/d in 2001, -2,187 kb/d in 2002, and (not counting
war-disrupted Iraq, clearly a special case) -1,168 kb/d in 2003.
Again,
this is in the face of high and rising prices. These declines were,
of
course, offset by increases by other major producers: +1,297 kb/d in
1999,
+3,176 kb/d in 2000, +1,269 kb/d in 2001, +1,726 kb/d in 2002, and
+4,502
kb/d in 2003. This yields net aggregate output changes of -1,297 kb/d
in
1999, +2,625 kb/d in 2000, -192 kb/d in 2001, -461 kb/d in 2002, and
+3,334
kb/d in 2003. By contrast, in 1993-1998 the average annual net aggregate
output change among the 48 largest producers was positive every year,
exceeding 1,000 kb/d in five years out of six, and averaging 1,289
kb/d. All this indicates that world oil output has reached a bumpy
plateau.
(5) 2003's 3,334
kb/d net increase among the major countries is less impressive than
it looks. Almost all of it (+3,158 kb/d) was in just
five
countries: Saudi Arabia (+1,153 kb/d), Russia (+845 kb/d), Iran (+432
kb/d), the United Arab Emirates (+361 kb/d), and Kuwait (+367 kb/d).
Over
half of it was in Saudi Arabia and Russia. All five of these countries
are
well past their peaks. Saudi Arabia's Ghawar field has a water-cut
of at
least 30 percent and perhaps much more. As Matthew Simmons has shown,
a
few aging giant fields accounted for about 51 percent of Iran's 2000
output, 95 percent of the U.A.E.'s, and 89 percent of Kuwait's. In
other
words, the world is heavily dependent for increases in oil output on
a few
large, post-peak producers whose ability to sustain production increases
is
highly questionable. Seen in this light, the 2003 output surge is very
fragile.
In short, the BP
data point strongly to an imminent global peak. Statements in August
by OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro and
Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez that OPEC had reached the
limit
of its production capacity support this interpretation. We might even
be
passing through the peak this year.
Oil peak and subsequent
decline necessarily mean economic contraction and
exploding energy costs. This will make supporting the aging populations
of
America and Europe, supplying health care (which is energy-intensive)
and
shifting to alternative energies increasingly problematic. Beyond even
these daunting challenges looms the hideous problem of a growing
world
population using a dwindling oil supply. The U.S. Census Bureau projects
world population of 6.81 billion in 2010, 7.51 billion in 2020, 8.11
billion in 2030, 8.62 billion in 2040, and 9.05 billion in 2050. The
2004
revision of ASPO's depletion model projects oil output (all liquids)
for
these years of 28.74, 23.49, 19.30, 15.36, and 11.54 Gb respectively.
This
works out to 4.22 barrels per capita in 2010, 3.13 in 2020, 2.38 in
2030,
1.78 in 2040, and just 1.28 in 2050!
Small wonder politicians
and mainstream opinion are in denial about depletion. But eventually
the truth will have to break through.
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